Fantasy football players and sports bettors used to operate in separate worlds. One group tracked player stats to build winning rosters. The other hunted for odds that offer value. However, in 2025, these two activities are aligning more closely than ever before.
Fantasy projections now help identify inefficiencies in sportsbook lines. When the fantasy consensus points to a breakout season, but the odds haven’t moved, opportunity may be knocking.
This overlap creates a new edge for those paying close attention. By blending insights from both approaches, sharp observers can spot value before the markets adjust. It’s no longer just about picks or bets; it’s about recognizing patterns across both formats and capitalizing early.
So let’s take a closer look at the players who are appearing regularly in fantasy picks – and influencing odds at the same time.
Saquon Barkley: Running Toward History – Again
Philadelphia’s offensive line is as dominant as ever, generating 2.3 yards before contact per rush in 2024 and clearing over 1,000 yards before contact for running backs. That’s more than just a stat. It’s a massive head start for a rusher like Saquon Barkley, who piled up a historic 2,005 rushing yards last season and surpassed 2,500 when including the playoffs.
Now he aims to do something unprecedented: become the first running back to post back-to-back 2,000-yard seasons.
Barkley is projected to register 1,373 rushing yards on 292 carries. While not quite historic, that projection still makes him the favorite for the rushing title at +250 odds. With Philadelphia bringing back the league’s best tackle duo in Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, and demonstrating depth across the line, Barkley has both the talent and the support to challenge the record books again. He leads all projected rushers, narrowly edging Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.
The market’s belief in Barkley is warranted. Among all early NFL predictions, none feels more grounded than Barkley reclaiming the rushing crown. The analytics say the title is his to lose.
Judkins’ Undervalued Rookie Role in Cleveland
Quinshon Judkins may be a rookie, but he’s stepping into a Cleveland backfield full of opportunity. Oddsmakers have him pegged at just 650.5 rushing yards, a total far below his projected output of 1,093. That 443-yard discrepancy is the largest differential among all qualified backs.
Current projections view Judkins as a starter, based on his proven college production and ability to share carries effectively. He averaged 5.5 yards per attempt at Ohio State while playing alongside TreVeyon Henderson.
The Browns’ offensive line has caused fans and analysts to ask some hard questions, especially at left tackle, but the team still has the personnel to support a run-heavy scheme. With the quarterback situation uncertain, Cleveland is likely to rely on its ground game.
Judkins doesn’t need to dominate carries; he just needs steady volume, which he’s almost certain to get. His rushing grade never dipped below elite levels in college. That’s rare consistency. If you’re tracking NFL player news on FanDuel, Judkins is a name to watch closely. Bookmakers may not be projecting a lead role, but the metrics strongly disagree.
Justin Fields: The Ground Game Lifeline in New York
The Jets are giving Justin Fields the reins in 2025, and his legs might be their best offensive weapon. New York’s offensive line ranked near the bottom in both pass and run block win rates in 2024. With few potent receiving weapons aside from Garrett Wilson, Fields is likely to revisit his 2022 blueprint: escape pressure and gain chunks of yardage on the ground.
The betting line sits at 550.5 rushing yards. The projection? 738. A near 190-yard differential. Fields has cleared that total twice already, including a 1,100-yard campaign in 2022. His mobility and comfort with designed runs make him one of the most reliable rushing quarterbacks in football. Even with offensive line concerns, his history suggests he’s one of the few signal-callers who can regularly hit overs on rushing props.
With the Jets leaning into a transition year and Fields playing for his future, the script sets up perfectly for another 700+ yard rushing season.
Kyren Williams: Quiet Dominance in the Rams’ Backfield
Kyren Williams doesn’t carry the big-name value of a Barkley or a McCaffrey, but since becoming the Rams’ lead back in 2023, he’s amassed over 2,400 rushing yards, the third most in the league over that timespan. In 2024, he logged 1,299 yards on 316 carries, the third-highest workload in football. His 2025 projection is slightly dialed back to 267 carries, but he’s still forecasted to surpass 1,174 yards.
The betting line, meanwhile, is set at 1,000.5 yards. That’s a generous cushion. While the Rams’ offensive line faced injury issues last season, they remain a top-10 run-blocking unit and now have Coleman Shelton back at center, a familiar face. However, even with the added depth behind him, Williams is still the focal point. Add in the motivation of a contract year and ongoing extension talks, and you have the recipe for high-volume, high-upside play.
Betting Through the Lens of Fantasy Logic
What ties Barkley, Judkins, Fields, and Williams together isn’t just talent; it’s where fantasy projections reveal inefficiencies in betting markets. Barkley’s elite offensive line support and recent production justify his favorite status; however, Judkins, a rookie with starter-level metrics, hasn’t been priced accordingly. Fields, in a low-ceiling passing offense, brings rushing upside with a known track record. Williams, despite being quietly elite, is still undervalued due to name perception and backfield additions.
Fantasy projections are about expected volume and efficiency. Betting lines often lean on perceived team roles, recency bias, and public perception. When the two disagree, opportunity exists. The best models are based on usage trends, blocking efficiency, play design, and historical consistency. That’s where the value is. And for 2025, that value leans heavily on rushing props.
Content reflects information available as of 01/07/2025; subject to change.
